Introduction
The Canadian National Bank Open stretches over the dog days of summer. As the tennis world edges closer to the US Open, the evenings grow longer, but the heat remains the same. Color now adorns the backs of tournament contenders, a stark disturbance in a sea of manicured, blue asphalt. Four of the top six ATP players have opted to forgo Canada. Some have continued the summer’s love affair with natural surfaces, sand as the court of choice beneath calloused feet. Americans, Russians, and Alex de Minaur saturate the draws, drowning the inflated rankings of European clay and grass court specialists. There is a different energy ahead of the US Open, a palpable energy that reverberates around a stadium like the speakers at Tomorrowland. There is nothing quite as American as the distinct disrespect for silence, for waiting. Ben Shelton and Flavio Cobolli aren’t fans of silence either. Their past three matchups have been nothing short of electric, adrenaline-infused theater. Their clash in Toronto was no exception. With Cobolli at a career-high No. 17 and Shelton newly ranked No. 7, the match swung through peaks and troughs, with shifts in strategy and serving performance ultimately mapping Shelton’s path to victory. The US hard court season rewrites itself every year with renewed urgency, ushering the next generation to stake their claim on uncharted territory. In Toronto, Shelton got there first.
Shelton’s First Set Strategy
Ben Shelton’s first set strategy focused on three elements:
- Serve lights out
- Play aggressive
- Play with variation
All of these elements serve a defensive and attacking purpose, enabling Shelton to maximize his weapons and mask his faults.
1. Serve Lights Out
The most obvious of Shelton’s weapons is his serve. The American ranks fifth in the ATP this season for his serve rating, with the potential to climb even further up the rankings with improvements. Tennis Insights puts Shelton at an 8.6 out of ten for serve rating in the 52-weeks preceding Toronto, with each of his first and second round matches surpassing 9.0. Cobolli, by contrast, is at a 7.4 for the season and ranks 68th in serve rating by the ATP. These numbers alone reveal an easy place for Shelton to find an advantage. The conditions also aided Shelton’s campaign. In comparison to Montreal last year, Toronto averaged 4 km/h faster on average with a 6 cm lower bounce. Although the night conditions worked against the domination of the serve, Shelton’s serving numbers were still miles ahead of Cobolli’s peak throughout the match.
On average, Shelton made 62% of his first serves compared to Cobolli’s 45%. Despite Cobolli winning 5% more points on first-serve (76% to 71%) and more points on second-serve (52% to 49%), 40% of Shelton’s serves went unreturned. This suggests that Shelton’s serve was more effective in isolation, forming the linchpin for a hybrid serve-and-volley approach.
This dominance was particularly important because Cobolli possesses an excellent return of serve, especially in lower bouncing conditions (as is shown by his grass court prowess). If Cobolli’s return was sufficient enough to force a neutral plus-one ball, Shelton would struggle against Cobolli’s arsenal from the baseline.
2. Play Aggressive
During service games, Shelton’s points were constructed upon the strength of his serve and plus-one. Shelton came to the net fourteen times throughout the set, four more times than the other two sets combined, with a 50% success rate. Ending points early and playing aggressively not only suited Shelton’s existing strengths but also prevented Cobolli from forcing his way into rallies from the baseline. By the beginning of the third set, Cobolli had won 22 of the 31 rallies that ranged between five and nine shots. This means that Cobolli claimed 71% of mid-length rallies, giving him a huge advantage from the back of the court.
Cobolli, in some ways, is Shelton’s perfect foil. The Italian’s backhand lies flat, allowing him to rush Shelton on his lefty, topspin-heavy forehand and slice the court open with wide angles. Of course, Cobolli is even more happy to unleash his forehand against a weaker Shelton backhand, forcing errors and enabling him to come to the net. This matchup is precisely what Shelton was aiming to avoid by ending points early. By avoiding longer rallies, Shelton was able to keep the points on his racket and avoid the backhand to forehand exchange. Even on serve, Shelton’s backhand was the target. By the second set, 60% of Cobolli’s serves on the deuce side went wide to Shelton’s weaker backhand return side. Cobolli did not hesitate to punish Shelton’s forehand trades when given time, pummeling him with lethal inside-out forehands.
3. Play With Variation
Despite Shelton’s attempts, he was statistically inferior to Cobolli at the net. Overall, Cobolli won 13/19 net points (68%) compared to Shelton who won 15/24 (62%). Once Cobolli recognized Shelton’s patterns at the net, the points began to end on his terms. The Italian became an expert at finding the passing shot from impossible angles and making Shelton uncomfortable off of his own volleys.
Nevertheless, Shelton came to the net 14 times in the first set with a 50% win rate. Cobolli too had a 50% conversion rate, though he only played six points at the net throughout the set. Even so, these numbers do not tell the whole story. Shelton forced Cobolli into transitional situations, where neither his dominance from the baseline nor his dominance at the net enabled him to bypass Shelton’s defenses. The American managed to match Cobolli on not just his net play, but also in baseline rallies. Shelton only lost one more baseline point than Cobolli over the course of the first set, despite Cobolli winning more baseline points in each of the three sets.
The Match Progression
After failing to achieve a first set tiebreak, Flavio Cobolli’s first serve percentage rose from 35% to 62% in the second set. This enabled Cobolli to not only generate easier holds on serve, but also gave the Italian a growing psychological edge. Cobolli returned 85% of Shelton’s first serves in the second set, an unfathomable number for the American to swallow. This statistic suggests that 1. Cobolli became more adept at anticipating the Shelton serve and 2. Shelton’s serving patterns became more predictable (and perhaps less precise). As a result, Cobolli was able to get comfortable with his preferred strategy against Shelton of dictating rallies from the baseline. Cobolli’s dominance prevented Shelton from coming forward and ending points early.
In the third set, Cobolli’s free-flowing style of play faltered. His serve percentage dipped to 38%. Despite these challenges, Cobolli managed to break Shelton by forcing errors off of his groundstrokes. In some ways, the writing was on the wall for Cobolli as he attempted to serve out the match at 5-4. Prior to being broken, Shelton had only missed one first serve while facing break point. The American grit clawed its way out of the world No. 7, slowly suffocating the player on the other side of the net. This is not unusual for Shelton.
As Tennis Abstract highlights in their article Jack Draper’s Work in Progress, there is a clear relationship between average serve performance and serve performance on break point. This can be seen below in their graph. Most players fall close to the line, many fall well below it. But Ben Shelton is one of the outliers, soaring well above the average. This is why Shelton’s emphatic tiebreak victory should come as no surprise. Not only is the American the more complete player, but he plays with unshakable confidence. When the pressure is at its highest, Shelton hits his peak.
Conclusion
Looking ahead to Cincinnati is exciting. Sinner and Alcaraz return, headlining the draw as the first and second seeds. The cyclical nature of tennis never provides ample transparency for the meaning of a tournament, or the meaning of a contemporary rivalry. Much like history, the tennis narrative must be read backwards. Ben Shelton and Flavio Cobolli will not define this generation, they may not even mark the margins of its retelling. All of this goes to say that the present is exceptional. History is never silent. History never waits.
Sources
ATP Tour – Leaderboard | ATP Tour | Tennis
Tennis Abstract – Jack Draper’s Work In Progress
Tennis TV – Flavio Cobolli vs Ben Shelton