IMAGE CREDIT: Jack Draper AELTC/Florian Eisele
In the first two rounds of Wimbledon, 36 seeded players have been eliminated, 17 on the women’s side and 19 for the men. This includes half of the current ATP top 10. Jack Draper is the most recent of these top seeds to be defeated, losing in four sets to Marin Čilić yesterday on Court 1. In his press conference, Draper highlighted his struggles on the surface, citing his forehand and movement as the primary issues. While it is difficult to argue with a player’s own assessment of their game, I would claim that it was Draper’s backhand and serve that ultimately cost him the match, and that, in fact, the 23-year-old is much closer to having what it takes to challenge the very best than he might realize.
Draper’s Tactical Challenges
As discussed in this article by Tennis Abstract, Draper’s default style of play is the same passive, rally-extending style he used in Juniors (especially when he is tight). On grass, it is more difficult to win through defense and redirection as players risk opponents like Čilić hitting them off the court. Draper’s aggression score (a measurement of how often a player ends the point, excluding serve) is well below average at -38. For a 6 ft. 4 lefty with a top-5 win rate on tour in rallies between one and three shots (as of Indian Wells), Draper should be looking to shorten points. During Draper’s title run in Stuttgart and his subsequent win over Carlos Alcaraz at Queen’s Club last year on grass, he played with a positive aggression score. This run was what cemented Draper as an ATP title contender.
Tennis Abstract mentions that an easy way to be more aggressive in points is to step in on the second serve. Against Čilić, this proved successful. Draper also incorporated his backhand slice and approached the net with increased frequency throughout the second and third sets. Draper’s variation drew errors from Čilić, who prefers to take the ball higher on his forehand. That being said, if Draper’s backhand slice lacked sufficient depth or his approach shot was too soft, the Čilić forehand was punishing. After failing to convert on his variation in the fourth set, Draper reverted to hugging the baseline.
The Čilić Plan of Action
Marin Čilić played unprecedentedly well for someone who has been competing on the Challenger Tour for most of this year. In the first two sets, his forehand averaged nearly 10 mph faster than Draper’s, and he spent over 10% more of his points in attack. In order to stifle Draper’s biggest weapons, his forehand and first serve, Čilić adopted an aggressive style of play targeted at exploiting the Draper backhand and lefty serve. Two thirds of the balls Draper hit were on his backhand side, a statistic that was reversed from his first round match against Sebastian Baez.
To find the backhand, Čilić played his own two-hander down the line as opposed to cross court into the Draper forehand. Čilić is extremely comfortable with hitting this backhand deep and hard, forcing Draper to hit his backhand short and soft into the center of the court. Čilić then smashed an inside out forehand to Draper’s forehand side, making him scramble to the other side of the court. If Draper made the return, the entire court would be left open for Čilić to end the point.
Draper’s inability to dictate rallies was also due to the depth on Čilić’s groundstrokes. By hitting the ball deep and hard, Draper had to play behind the baseline while Čilić moved up into the court to find wider angles and pull the Brit further off the court. Against the Draper serve, Čilić returned the ball with similar depth and pace on both wings. This prevented Draper’s typical strategy of targeting a slice serve, especially up the T, into the righty backhand. Overall, Čilić’s ability to hit through the sidelines on either groundstroke nullified Draper’s aggression and eventually, his defense, in rallies.
How the Match Evolved
At two sets to love down, Draper managed to turn the statistics around. Čilić made less than 40% of his first serves for most of the set and his forehand speed fell by 5 mph. The tension in Draper’s shoulders crumbled and he started to swing through his backhand. It was this improvement in Draper’s backhand that forced Čilić to play his dominant side. For one set, the audience was treated to the excellence of the Draper forehand. Draper’s percentage in attack rose from 16% to 34% while Čilić’s fell marginally. These statistics petered off in the fourth set as Čilić returned to his previous level and Draper’s confidence dropped.
Conclusion
Draper is happy to brush aside questions about the pressure he faces as the highest ranked British player at Wimbledon. Nevertheless, it is my belief that Draper allows himself to play with more aggression and swing through the ball when he is loose. Čilić not only directed his shots towards Draper’s less reliable backhand, but also denied him the safety of passive play. In front of an expectant home crowd, Draper allowed his flat, aggressive backhand, usually so well suited to grass, to be manhandled. If Draper finds a way for aggressive play to be his comfort zone, he will be a dangerous contender in any grass court draw.