Earth and Water: Analyzing the 2025 Winston-Salem Final

Introduction

If Botic van de Zandschulp is water: a lovely, languid figure that redirects pace and carves out corners, Márton Fucsovics is earth: an unyielding, solid mass that absorbs pressure until, with one minute shift, the court shakes like a magnitude-eight earthquake. On semi-final day, after the ataraxia of the water was broken by the remnants of a hurricane, the Dutchman was forced to flow through two matches while Fucsovics was gifted a walkover. The strong dose of fatigue, coupled with his inability to cope with the Fucsovics groundstrokes, ensured the Hungarian’s victory. The thirty-three year old lifted the winner’s trophy for the third time in his career, his first on hard court, with a score of 6-3 7-6.

The Fucsovics Arsenal

In a 2024 blog by Tennis Abstract titled Daniil Medvedev’s Instinct For Survival, both Botic van de Zandschulp and Márton Fucsovics are listed as players that have a high win rate in extended rallies on clay. Winston-Salem is a hard court, though ranks lower in surface speed than various clay court events including Buenos Aires, Rio de Janeiro, and Kitzbuhel according Tennis Abstract’s ATP Surface Speed rankings. This means that most baseline players who favor clay are more likely to find success at Winston-Salem throughout the American hard-court swing.

As of 2024, Fucsovics creates long rallies more frequently than average player on clay (16% vs. 11%), and is the sixth least-likely to generate a shorter return point. Additionally, he wins these extended rallies at a top-15 level (3.1% payoff vs. 2.3% average). Although Van de Zandschulp has a top-15 win percentage on longer rallies on clay (60% vs. 58% average), he fails to generate enough of these longer rallies to maximize his advantage. Therefore, on a slower hard court such as Winston-Salem, Fucsovics can use his prowess in longer rallies to exhaust his (already exhausted) competitor and force errors off of the Van de Zandschulp racket.

Throughout the final, Fucsovics relentlessly pounded the Van de Zandschulp return, breaking him four times across two sets. Fucsovics won 17/27 of the baseline points in the first set. Not only was Fucsovics able to maintain his level in longer rallies, but he was actively attempting to drag Van de Zandschulp from sideline to sideline to increase the levels of exhaustion. On top of the fatigue factor, Fucsovics expertly weaved in baseline variation and playing shots down the line. Off of both wings, Van de Zandschulp was sent scrambling, frequently lobbing returns into the air to set up an easy smash at the net.

The Fucsovics slice and topspin forehand were tricky to manage for the continental grip of the Dutchman. Higher, heavier balls forced Van de Zandschulp to twist his wrist into awkward positions, while the backhand slice forced him to generate his own speed with his flatter groundstrokes. These discrepancies allowed the Hungarian to dominate rallies with relative ease. In the first three games of the second set, Van de Zandshulp hit ten unforced errors to Fucsovics’s four. This showcases Van de Zandshulp struggle with the pace of the Fucsovics ball in addition to the attrition-like nature of the American ATP 250.

The Van de Zandschulp Resurgence

At 5-1 down in the second set, Fucsovics got tight. The Hungarian tried to serve out the match twice, each time failing to deal with the languid power of the Van de Zandschulp groundstrokes. The Dutchman looked reenergized by the sudden turn of events, happily smashing balls into the corners and incorporating almost excessive amounts of net play. These tactics neutralized Fucsovics’s advantages in longer rallies. Points were ended earlier, and Van de Zandschulp temporarily regained his sea-legs.

Much like his previous matches, the Dutchman became the master of fluid motion, grounding down the solid rock of the Fucsovics forehand and forcing errors from his Hungarian challenger. This resistance shattered during the second set tiebreak. Fucsovics retook control of the match by waiting out the Van de Zandschulp momentum.

Conclusion

Looking ahead to the US Open, Márton Fucsovics finds himself with a strong first-round matchup against an out-of-form Denis Shapovalov. If he makes it past the second round, his run will all but surely be ended by a duel with reigning champion and world number one Jannik Sinner. In his first-round, Botic van de Zandschulp will face off against eleventh-ranked Holger Rune. Although unlikely that the Dutchman will be able to pull off an upset equivalent to his win against Carlos Alcaraz last year, he is not in without a chance. Winston-Salem is a vibrant, fast-paced tournament that gives players a chance to fine-tune their game ahead of the US Open. Hopefully this run of form continues for both players, allowing each to break into the top fifty in due course.

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