Submitted for the 2025 BTJA Mike Dickson Award, this article was highly commended by the panel.
Last July, I found myself searching for pockets of shade between the seats of the FitzGerald Tennis Center in Washington DC. Omnipresent storm clouds hung overhead as Sebastian Korda and Flavio Cobolli took the court. The DC crowd had thinned out, exhausted by rain delays and the defeat of hometown hero Frances Tiafoe. The young Italian stepped into the role of the antagonist with ease, spraying forehands into gaps only he could see. Korda, the sole survivor of three American semifinalists, was noticeably nervy.
As the match wore on, Korda found a languid groove. Cobolli’s initial blaze began to flicker. The effects of a fourth consecutive three-set match were apparent. Cobolli’s movement, so electric in the first set, dropped off. At the top of the bleachers, a small Italian boy folded his handmade sign, wrapping himself in blankets.
Cobolli’s win in Hamburg last week echoed the striking performance he delivered in DC last summer. The down-the-line backhands, running forehands, heavy weight of shot, and dynamic movement were all excitingly familiar. But so too were the streaks of unforced errors that often follow his moments of brilliance.
At twenty-three, Cobolli is on the precipice of determining the fate of his career. If he does not develop the speed, accuracy, and variation of his serve, he will struggle to compete with elite competition. His first serve percentage of 55%, along with his percentage of first-serve points won, is a reminder that his game, while explosive, is still in development. Average serve speed has risen by over 4 mph in the last decade, and is a crucial determinant in becoming a consistent top 10 player.
The key difference between DC and Hamburg lies in Cobolli’s ability to knit together moments of the spectacular with consistency and focus. Between the second and third set of his semifinal against Tomás Martín Etcheverry, Cobolli’s first serve percentage rose by 20%. This not only reflects a shift in Cobolli’s execution, but a change in his mentality. In his final sets against both Etcheverry and Rublev in the final, none of the six break points against him were converted. Throughout this clay season, Cobolli has started to shape his game not just for show, but also as a means to adapt and problem-solve on court.
Throughout the past year, Cobolli has laid the groundwork for a potentially successful career as a top 20 player. His slower adaptation to the tour is not a hindrance, but rather a chance for him to acclimate to the intensity of professional tennis and develop the pieces of his game that need improvement. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen whether the young Italian can take the next steps to reach his potential. The foundation for a special career is already in place. The next couple of seasons will determine whether or not he can pass the punch list.